Key Facts

The 2026 southwest monsoon ended about 13% below the long-term average of 87 cm, with East and Northeast India recording their driest season since 1901, as a strong El Niño that is expected to peak in December took shape. Yet in 1997, one of the strongest El Niños of the 20th century, India received near-normal rain. Since 1950, seven monsoons met a moderate or strong El Niño and five of them, including 2026, were 'deficient', meaning at least 10% below average. The difference in 1997 was a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which offset El Niño, and where the warmest Pacific water lay. IMD forecast 92% of the long-period average for 2026 (plus or minus 5) and the season ended at 87.4%, while its own model saw the dipole staying neutral throughout.

GK Context

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, in which weakened trade winds shift warm water eastwards in the Pacific; sinking air over India can then suppress monsoon rain. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole means the western Indian Ocean is warmer than the east and generally favours the monsoon. The monsoon supplies about three-quarters of India's annual rainfall, and nearly 40% of farmland has no irrigation. Since 2021 the IMD has used a combination of global climate models for its forecasts.